Arsenal, so the joke runs, are the only team that can finish 4th in a 2-horse race.
Last year could have been our year. It perhaps should have been our year. Manchester United, who eventually won the league at a canter, were far from their dynamic and imposing best. They were, as ever, robust, confident and strong-willed, but as Didier Deschamps put it, they had "a bit less fantasy than we have seen in the past." That they won the league without too much consternation, despite Wayne Rooney throwing a titanic wobbly mid-way through the season, with their talisman all but leaving a pile of excrement in Alex Ferguson's shoes in order to engineer a move away (or few more quid in the wage packet to spend on hair replacement treatment, at least). It is testament to Ferguson's enduring quality as a leader of men that he could turn that situation into a title win, with Rooney the driving force no less; lesser managers would surely have failed to do so. Perhaps there are lessons to be taken by the Arsenal management from that saga. When Manchester United's two best players in recent years indicated they wanted to leave, one was sold to Real Madrid for a world record fee, the other stayed at the club and took them to another Premier League title and a Champions League final.
Chelsea, with their squad shorn of the sort of depth it had in previous years, endured the sort of capitulation that Arsenal would be proud of. Of course, they eventually found their feet and started grinding out the wins again, but their collapse cost their manager his job. Of course, it always helps when you can spend £75m on two players when your season isn't going too well.
Which brings us on to Manchester City. Last season demarked their transition from hopefuls to contenders. Their squad had an undoubted balance of power and finesse; of youth and experience; of desperate-to-get-there and been-there-seen-that, but it was always going to take some time to gel. Third place and their first silverware since some time in the middle ages gives them a neat springboard for this season but for the majority of last year they did not seem to impose the sort of threat to the title that Arsenal did for patches.
A pre-Dalglish Liverpool were unlikely to damage anyone but themselves and Tottenham had their first season of Champions League football to distract them from the day job.
And yet, Arsenal conspired to throw away a League Cup final and subsequently fall apart in the league. I don't think I need to add anything on why at this stage. Everyone - and I mean everyone - has their opinions on what went wrong with Arsenal last year and I don't think I have anything new to add to the matter. What I will say is that last season represented a wonderful opportunity missed.
Will we get that same chance again this year? Well, maybe is the only answer I can give.
I'm not going to go too deeply into the problems Arsenal have navigated (or, perhaps more appropriately, failed to navigate) this summer. Gingers for Limpar wrote a piece on the likely departure of Cesc Fabregas which says all I could hope to say on the matter; Yankee Gunner has written pieces on our problems with squad depth and a more eloquent piece on our overall summer travails than I could hope to write; the fantastically-monikered Arse-to-Mouse wrote a great piece on the need for fresh blood (not literally, it's not a vampire blog); and Arseblog has covered the whole sorry summer in his usual inimitable and insightful style.
What I will do is look at where we go from here.
Firstly, the positives (and yes, there are some). Arsenal aren't the only side to have substantial concerns going into the new season.
Manchester United have bought reasonably well. De Gea, Jones, Ashley Young are undoubtedly good players. But it is hard to see that they have added the sparkle that Deschamps felt they had lost last year, especially now they have let the modern-day Pele and Garrincha go in the sale of Brown and O'Shea to Sunderland. It is difficult to argue that Manchester United have significantly strengthened their starting XI. Will Young get into the side ahead of Valencia or Nani? Perhaps. Will he score, will he get assists? Probably. Does he make them a much better side? No. Phil Jones is a good purchase, one I'm sorry Arsenal have missed out on, and he will offer Manchester United some depth at centre back as well as being comfortable acting as an anchor in midfield, where I'm sure he will start his United career, in light of Hargreaves exit and Darren Fletcher's ongoing mystery virus.
The biggest question is David de Gea (which I'm reliably informed is not pronounced 'David the Gay,' despite the fact it obviously should be). He has looked a touch shaky in pre-season but I don't doubt he will settle quickly. I've seen him a fair bit and he is obviously a talented lad. But Edwin van der Sar's boots are big boots to fill. They are clown boots. Van der Sar is imperative to so much that Manchester United are good at: as well as being a wonderful shot stopper, he marshalls their defence and starts their attacks. Manchester United, in Schmeichel and van der Sar have operated with a sweeper goalkeeper. So many of United's most incisive attacks are quick breaks started by their goalkeeper and it remains to be seen whether de Gea can offer them that in the same way (that's assuming he starts, United's goalkeeping coach has said there are no guarantees whether it will be him or Lindegaard).
I don't think they will be affected by the retirement of Scholes in the manner some have suggested. However talented he was, he wasn't a guaranteed starter for them towards the end of his career. The gap that needs filling in the squad is one of a 20-game a season man, not a stalwart.
Chelsea, too, are not without their problems. They have a foetal manager and a geriatric squad. Their star signing, the £50m Nando Torres, has looked a man worth 10% of that fee thus far. They have made no major signings. Much like Arsenal, there are two Chelseas that could turn up this year: the calm, assured side that started last season and the nervous, jaded side that collapsed.
Liverpool are without doubt a different proposition under Dalglish to that which they were under Hodgson (I'm a big admirer of Roy's, but he went to the wrong club at the wrong time). They would have finished second last year if the league started in February. But their pre-season has been somewhat of a mess. 3-0 defeats to Hull and Galatasary (with a Baros brace) are hard to swallow, even if a full complement of players was not present. A 3-3 draw with Norweigan minnows Valerenga would have done lettle to quell the nerves. Add to this their buying policy, which is perhaps best summed up by the following joke:
Newcastle have announced that Joey Barton is available on a free. Liverpool have bid £20m.
There is, of course, the counterpart to this joke:
Newcastle have announced that Joey Barton is available on a free. Arsenal have asked for £20m.
Adam and Henderson play in the same position as Liverpool's star man, Steven Gerrard, and Liverpool's best players from the second half of last year: Meireles, Lucas and Maxi.
Poulsen, Aquilani and Cole are still on their books. Perhaps this surfeit of CMs will play into their hands when injuries start to take their toll but surely it would have made more sense to address the areas of the squad that have desperately needed addressing for some seasons: a couple of full backs and some wingers. They have, of course, bought Stewart Downing for a not insignificant fee, so perhaps I do them an injustice.
Regardless of the men they have bought, I can't see Liverpool as being stronger than Arsenal. They might have galloping newborn foal-alike Andy Carroll, but he remains a relatively unproven quantity in the Premier League. He's certainly no Robin van Persie (apart from, perhaps, in terms of injury record). I suppose they at least have Dangerous 'Dirk' Kuyt. But if they can get their 0-9-1 formation to work, they will do ok.
Manchester City have added well to their already strong collection of players and I fully expect them to win the league this year. If I was a neutral, I would be salivating at the prospect of a team containing Mario Balotelli, the most entertaining human alive, and Kun Aguero, who is a wonderful footballer to watch. I'm not a neutral of course, so I hope they fail miserably. Their purchase of Gael Clichy, whom I am not particularly sad to see leave Arsenal (from a football perspective at least), strengthens them at left back. Clichy certainly has his problems, but he is an improvement on Zabaletta and Kolarov.
So, what of Arsenal?
I will start by saying that we are clearly not as bad a side as many proclaim. Last year we had victories against Barcelona, Manchester United, Chelsea and Manchester City. Bad sides don't do that. We are, however, a side with some fairly fundamental problems. Are they problems that can be addressed by simply throwing money at them? Not really, in my opinion.
With the obvious caveat that buying better players than you have will obviously improve you (and I do think there are a couple of areas we could strengthen), our starting XI, even accounting for the possible loss of Cesc and Nasri this summer with no replacement coming in, which seems unlikely, would look something like this:
But have our problems been addressed?
Well, first I supppose I should establish what our biggest problems were:
i) inability to break sides down and a propensity to pass sideways when we are struggling to do so
ii) weakness from set-pieces
iii) lack of motivation to press against 'lesser' sides in the same way that we did against, say, Chelsea
iv) misfiring replacements
Shape
I think we are likely to stay in broadly the same shape as we have for the last couple of seasons: a 4-3-3 with RvP acting as a false nine. It worked exceptionally well going forward when we had all of Walcott/Cesc/Nasri behind RvP. The Walcott to RvP combination was the most common assist/goal in the league last year. Of course, if we lose Cesc and Nasri, the continued fluidity of this formation is contingent on Ramsey and Gervinho settling into the first team very quickly.
Pressing
Arshavin said recently: "We’ll also play a pressing game – if we do that well, I’m sure you’ll see an improved team.” And I'm sure that's true. Our of our biggest problems last season was not doing enough when we weren't in possession. Against Chelsea in particular, we showed how effective we can be when we work hard to press the opposition. However, from what I have seen thus far in pre-season, and with the obvious caveat that, owing to fitness levels, you can't really judge a side's ability to press in pre-season friendlies, I don't think we are going to be pressing from the front in the way that Barcelona do (which Arshavin is probably quite happy with!). In pre-season, rather than putting pressure on the opposition defenders in possession, our forwards have dropped off as a unit and our defenders have pushed up. This constricts the amount of space available to play football in in the middle third. We go from
------------Forwards/Oppo Defenders------------
---------------Midfield--------------------
-----------------------Midfield------------------
-----------------------Half Way---------------------
-----------------Midfield-----------------------------
-----------------------------Midfield-------------
----------------Forward----------------------
---------------Defence---------------------------
to
---------------Oppo Defenders--------------------
-----------Forwards/Oppo midfield---------------
------------Half Way---Midfielders-------------
----------------Defence/Oppo forwards---------
Which is an idea espoused by Ariggo Sacchi:
I used to tell my players that, if we played with twenty-five metres from the last defender to the centre-forward, given our ability, nobody could beat us. And thus, the team had to move as a unit up and down the pitch, and also from left to right.
The obvious problem with this, as I'm sure people have noticed, is that it makes us susceptible to balls over the top. This is where one would hope Chesney's mild lunacy and propensity to act as a sweeper will come into action. It's reasonably simple to cut out goals conceeded from balls over the top, but it does rely on us having some pace at centre back. I don't think it would work with a combination of Squillaci and Djourou, say (but then again, no combination of Squillaci and anything works particularly well, with the possible exception of the combination of Squillaci and ludicrous mistakes, which is quite an effective combo).
Set Pieces
Chesney and Arshavin have both hinted that we are working hard at set pieces and that there is going to be a change in which we operate. I think that we will probably end up marking zonally, which is fine by me (people have an arbitrary dislike of zonal marking because Liverpool came in some flack for it a few seasons ago, but the Invincibles marked zonally and I seem to recall that worked out ok for them). Zonal marking requires a great deal of organisation and discipline, so I hope that Chesney can sufficiently boss his players around for that; one suspects he will. It is worth noting, I suppose, that we will have an almost entirely different back five from that which we have last year.
Going Sideways
In essence, sometimes we get stuck in a rut. We are overly-reliant on one type of attacking - slow, patient, build up play - and whilst that is fine for the majority of time (Barca do very little else and it works ok for them) it does mean that if things aren't working out, that we are very easy to defend against. Just set up on the edge of your own 18 yard line and wait to break. Arsenal don't have an answer to that. One thing that the invincibles were very good at was fast break-out play. And we need to recapture that (which is contingent on having a defence that can do so). I have been encouraged by a move towards such play in pre-season and I hope it continues.
The ever fascinating Soccer by the Numbers published some quantitative data recently that showed a correlation between success and goals scored from fast breaks. Obviously this could be a bit of a post hoc as Manchester United have always played on the break, so perhaps they are skewing the stats, but I think the analysis backs it up. The singings that Wenger has made/is reportedly looking to make back this up somewhat. The likes of Gervinho, Miyaichi and Chamberlain are fast and direct, so I expect (and hope) to see more direct football over the next few seasons.
Whilst I profess to having slight misgivings about Ramsey's readiness to take over from Cesc Fabregas, I do have confidence in the young Welshman. He's a good footballer and clearly has a stern mental constitution. So overall, I am fairly confident in our first XI's ability to achieve. The problem, of course, is in the paucity of option beyond the starting XI, particularly in light of Arsenal's current injury crisis (which started some time in 2006 and has been ongoing since).
There are simply too many peripheral players who are not good enough to be playing regularly for Arsenal. Wenger has endeavoured to move a few of those players on, but a somnolent transfer market has stymied that somewhat. Whilst I think that we are lacking in depth, it wouldn't concern me in the slightest to see Squillaci, Almunia, Bendtner, Traore or Eboué follow Denilson out of the door. And that I think the squad is too thin as it is and yet would readily see some bodies moved on is indicative of the quality of some of the fringe players we have.
It goes beyond that: there are some players who I think are probably deserving of further chances but that I worry are not at this time ready to contribute to an Arsenal team capable of winning trophies. Chamakh holds the ball up well, but looks more likely to win Haircut of the Year award than he does score goals; Arshavin is incredibly gifted but looks like he has been on the pies over the summer; Rosicky is economical with the ball but hardly the most incisive of players (especially as he insists on hitting all passes and shots with the outside of his boot); Diaby is as erratic as he is injured; Djourou's form has plummeted since his last injury. It is concerning. It perhaps says something that the only position I'm not really worried about in terms of depth is goalkeeper.
So we need some additions. And if those additions come - and frankly, I have given up on guessing whether they will or not - I think we'll have a good pop at things this year. And if they don't... well, I'm still confident of a top four finish. But, frankly, I think Arsenal should be aiming a little higher than that.
What worries me more than anything, though, is the insidious atmosphere around the club. Additions are key, as much as to winning things, as to pacifying the supporters. Normally, I'm not an advocat of listening to what the fans want. Football supporters are, on the whole, a fairly stupid, mob-driven lot (and I include myself amongst that number). But Arsène has some work to do to win people over. Which might seem strange, given all he has contributed to the club, but it is the way things are.
Wenger no longer seems to be the calm, wry, witty man who has full control of every facet of the club. The Cesc and Nasri situations exemplify this. He has the demeanour of a man for whom things are spiralling away from him and I do think that perhaps a change at the top might be needed to engender a winning atmosphere at the club again.
Not that I wish to denigrate anything Arsène has done for Arsenal. He has been a wonderful manager for us, and I include the last five years in that, during which he has kept us competitive despite having zero funds. A remarkable achievement. I'd like to hope that Wenger will be viewed as Arsenal's answer to Bill Shankly; that he will be remembered as the man who turned Arsenal into what it was - the modern superclub. I'd also like to hope that the next man to come in will Arsenal's answer to Bob Paisley; that he will be the man who takes Arsenal to the next level, to become bona fide European giants. But time will tell.
And I'm not calling for Wenger's head. He has given the club too much for that. I think perhaps he may have run his course with the club but I don't give much creedance to the motto 'in Arsène we rust' which some people are citing ad nauseam. We are hardly in the state Liverpool have been for the last two seasons. We've been top of the table and in a cup final in the last twelve months. That's some decent rust.
So I hold hope and reservation for the new season in equal measure. I think this summer has represented a huge opportunity missed and I have sincere questions for the club's leadership structure. But I think we'll be ok and more than that, I think if we can get some business done by the end of August, we'll be a threat.
Either way, I hope this season has some highlights to match last season's... only with fewer lowlights.
